Smoking Studies
Result: Positive Risk, Negative Risk or Insignificant Statistically.
Relative Risk and Confidence Interval.*
YR Name Result Rel.
RiskConf.Int Locale Type Sex Link Comments 06 Enstrom / Kabat 1.05 ETS PDF from Taylor &: Francis (Paper, not study)
Reviews of other studies
Abstract from HighWire Press
Stranges, et.al. 2006 no risk from ordinary exposure04 Whincup I shs /
cotinineLink at BMJ (Paper, not study)
ABC News
BMJ Responses
Debunkers Responses04 Doll I UK
50 yrs agosmoking BMJ (Paper, not study)
Jay R. Schrand
BMJ Responses04 Maes I USA addiction M&F Link at VCU 04 Glantz/ Sargent/ Shepard I USA SHS M&F Link at BMJ SHS Scam
Critique
Post your own
UCSF PR.
AHA PR
AHA
Responses04 Alavania I USA Pesticides spouse Link at AJE 03 Laborin/ Candelaria I USA kids parent Link at AACP B & W 99 Mitchell / Milerad I Eur SIDS M&F Link at WHO 98 Enstrom / Kabat I USA/ CA SHS M&F Spouses Link at BMJ SHS Harmless.
BMJ letters.
Editor Comment.
Fumento.
SHS Frauds.98 Boffetta (WHO) I 1.16 0.93-1.44 Eur Spouse M&F 98 Boffetta (WHO) I 1.17 0.94-1.45 Eur Work F&M Link 98 Boffetta (WHO) N 0.78 * 0.64-0.96 Eur Childhd F&M Link at WHO Pub Med Abstract
Hitt on Who Study98 Boffetta (WHO) I 1.03 0.82-1.29 Eur Social M&F Judge Osteen Ruling 97 Cardenas ^ I 1.2 0.80-1.60 US Spouse F Link at NCBI Chapman at BMJ 97 Cardenas ^ I 1.1 0.60-1.80 US Spouse M 97 Jockel-BIPS I 1.58 0.74-3.38 Ger Spouse F 97 Jockel-BIPS I 1.58 0.52-4.81 Ger Spouse M 97 Jockel-GSF N 0.93 * 0.66-1.31 Ger Spouse F 97 Jockel-GSF N 0.93 * 0.52-1.67 Ger Spouse M 97 Ko ^ I 1.3 0.70-2.50 Tai Spouse F 97 Nyberg I 1.2 0.74-1.94 Swed Spouse F 97 Nyberg I 1.2 0.57-2.55 Swed Spouse M 97 Jockel-BIPS P 2.37 1.02-5.48 Ger Work F&M 97 Jockel-GSF I 1.51 0.95-2.40 Ger Work F&M 97 Ko ^ I 1.1 0.40-3.00 Tai Work F 97 Nyberg I 1.6 0.90-2.90 Swed Work F&M 97 Jockel-BIPS I 1.05 0.50-2.22 Ger Childhd F&M 97 Jockel-GSF N 0.95 * 0.64-1.40 Ger Childhd F&M 97 Ko ^ N 0.80 * 0.40-1.60 Tai Childhd F 96 Schwartz ^ I 1.1 0.72-1.68 US Spouse F 96 Schwartz ^ I 1.1 0.60-2.03 US Spouse M 96 Sun I 1.16 0.80-1.69 Chin Spouse F 96 Want S-Y P 2.53 1.26-5.10 Chin Spouse F 96 Wang T-J I 1.11 0.67-1.84 Chin Spouse F Oxford Journals Cooking fumes in Taiwan 96 Schwartz ^ I 1.5 1.00-2.20 US Work F&M 96 Sun I 1.38 0.94-2.04 Chin Work F 96 Wang T-J N 0.89 * 0.46-1.73 Chin Work F 96 Sun P 2.29 1.56-3.37 Chin Childhd F 96 Wang T-J N 0.91 * 0.56-1.48 Chin Childhd F 95 Kabat 2 ^ I 1.08 0.60-1.94 US Spouse F 95 Kabat 2 ^ I 1.6 0.67-3.82 US Spouse M 95 Kabat 2 ^ I 1.15 0.62-2.13 US Work F 95 Kabat 2 ^ I 1.02 0.50-2.09 US Work M 95 Kabat 2 ^ N 0.90 * 0.43-1.89 US Childhd M 95 Kabat 2 ^ I 1.55 0.95-2.79 US Childhd F 95 Kabat 2 (^) I 1.22 0.69-2.15 US Social F 95 Kabat 2 (^) I 1.39 0.67-2.86 US Social M 94 Fontham ^ I 1.29 1.04-1.60 US Spouse F 94 Layard N 0.58 * 0.30-1.13 US Spouse F 94 Layard I 1.47 0.55-3.94 US Spouse M 94 Zaridze I 1.66 1.12-2.46 Russia Spouse F 94 Fontham ^ I 1.39 1.11-1.74 US Work F 94 Zaridze I 1.23 0.74-2.06 Russia Work F 94 Fontham ^ N 0.89 * 0.72-1.10 US Childhd F 94 Zaridze N 0.98 * 0.66-1.45 Russia Childhd F 94 Fontham I 1.5 1.19-1.89 US Social F 93 Liu Q ^ I 1.66 0.73-3.78 Chin Spouse F 93 Wu I 1.09 0.64-1.85 Chin Spouse F 92 EPA/600/6-90/006F US Link at EPA
"An estimate of the unknown, but believed to be true."Frauds 92 Brownson 2 ^ I NS * 0.80-1.20 US Spouse F 92 Stockwell ^ I 1.6 0.80-3.00 US Spouse F 92 Brownson 2 N 0.79 * 0.61-1.03 US Work F 92 Stockwell ^ I NS * NS US Work F 92 Brownson 2 ^ N 0.80 * 0.60-1.10 US Childhd F 92 Stockwell ^ I 1.1 0.50-2.60 US Childhd F 92 Stockwell I NS * NS * US Social F 91 Liu Z N 0.77 * 0.30-1.96 Chin Spouse F PubMed 90 Janerick N 0.93 * 0.55-1.57 US Spouse M&F 90 Kalandidi P 2.11 1.09-4.08 Grk Spouse F 90 Sobue I 1.13 0.78-1.63 Jap Spouse F 90 Wu-Williams N 0.70 * 0.60-0.90 Chin Spouse F 90 Janerich ^ N 0.91 * 0.80-1.04 US Work F&M 90 Kalandidi ^! I 1.39 0.80-2.50 Grk Work F 90 Wu-Williams ^ I 1.2 0.90-1.60 Chin Work F 90 Janerich ^ I 1.09 0.68-1.73 US Childhd F&M 90 Sobue (^) I 1.28 0.71-2.31 Jap Childhd F 90 Wu-Will(^)! I NS * NS Chin Childhd F 90 Janerich N 0.59 * 0.43-0.81 US Social F&M 89 Choi I 1.63 0.92-2.87 Kor Spouse F 89 Choi P 2.73 0.49-15.21 Kor Spouse M 89 Hole I 1.89 0.22-16.12 Scot Spouse F 89 Hole I 3.52 0.32-38.65 Scot Spouse M 89 Svensson I 1.26 0.57-2.81 Swed Spouse F 89 Svensson ^ P 3.3 0.50-18.80 Swed Childhd F 88 Butler P 2.2 0.48-8.56 US Spouse F 88 Geng P 2.16 1.08-4.29 Chin Spouse F 88 Inoue P 2.25 0.80-8.80 Jap Spouse F 88 Shimizu I 1.08 0.64-1.82 Jap Spouse F 88 Shimizu ^ I 1.18 0.70-2.01 Jap Work F 87 Bownson 1 I 1.68 0.39-6.90 US Spouse F 87 Gao I 1.19 0.82-1.73 Chin Spouse F 87 Humble P 2.2 0.80-6.60 US Spouse F 87 Humble P 4.82 0.63-36.56 US Spouse M 87 Koo I 1.64 0.87-3.09 HK Spouse F 87 Lam T I 1.65 1.16-2.35 HK Spouse F 87 Pershagen(+) I 1.2 0.70-2.10 Swed Spouse F 87 Koo ^ N 0.91 * 0.15-5.37 HK Work F 87 Gao ^ I 1.1 0.70-1.70 Chin Childhd F 87 Koo ^! I 1.73 0.60-6.40 HK Childhd F 87 Pershagen ^ I NS * 0.40-2.30 Swed Childhd F 86 Akiba(+) I 1.5 0.90-2.80 Jap Spouse F 86 Akiba(+) I 1.8 0.40-7.00 Jap Spouse M 86 Lee(+) I NS * 0.37-2.71 UK Spouse F PubMed 86 Lee(+) I 1.3 0.38-4.39 UK Spouse M 86 Lee ^ N 0.63* 0.17-2.33 UK Work F 86 Lee ^ I 1.61 0.39-6.60 UK Work M 86 Akiba + I NS * NS Jap Childhd F&M 86 Lee N 0.61 * 0.29-1.28 UK Social F 86 Lee I 1.55 0.40-6.02 UK Social M 85 Garfinkel 2(+) I 1.23 0.81-1.87 US Spouse F 85 Lam W P 2.01 1.09-3.72 HK Spouse F 85 Wu(+!) I 1.4 0.40-4.20 US Spouse F 85 Garfinkel 2 ^ N 0.93 * 0.70-1.20 US Work F 85 Wu ^ I 1.3 0.50-3.30 US Work F 85 Garfinkel 2 + N 0.91 * 0.74-1.12 US Childhd F 85 Wu (+) N 0.60 * 0.20-1.70 US Childhd F 85 Garfinkel 2 I 1.42 0.75-2.70 US Social F 84 Buffler N 0.80 * .34-1.90 US Spouse F 84 Buffler N 0.51 * .14-1.79 US Spouse M 84 Hirayama (+)! I 1.6 1.00-2.40 Jap Spouse F 84 Hirayama + P 2.24 1.19-4.22 Jap Spouse M 84 Kabat 1(+) N 0.79 * .25-2.45 US Spouse F 84 Kabat 1(+) NS * 0.20-5.07 US Spouse M 84 Kabat 1 ^ N 0.70 * 0.30-1.50 US Work F 84 Kabat 1 ^ P 3.3 1.10-10.40 US Work M 84 Kabat & Wyn ^ N 0.92 * 0.40-2.08 US Childhd F 84 Kabat & Wyn ^ I 1.26 0.33-4.83 US Childhd M 83 Correa(+!) P 2.07 .81-5.25 US Spouse F 83 Correa(+!) I 1.97 .38-10.32 US Spouse M 83 Trichopouls(+!) P 2.08 1.20-3.59 Grk Spouse F 83 Correa + I NS * NS US Childhd F 82 Chan + N 0.80 * .43-1.30 HK Spouse F 81 Garfinkel 1 (+) I 1.18 .90-1.54 US Spouse F Link at UCSF
*Epidemiology studies risk factors, and determines Relative Risk (RR). A Relative risk of 1.0 indicates no effect. A RR of 1.25 means the risk is increased by 25%; a RR of .75 means the risk is decreased by 25%, and indicates a protective effect.
Epidemology deals with probabilities, and is an imprecise science. The Confidence Interval (CI) can be thought of as the margin of error – the real RR could be anywhere within the CI. For example, in the WHO Boffetta study (# 98 on this chart) spouses were assigned an RR of 1.16, with a CI of .93-1.44. That means the real RR could be anywhere between .93 (a 7% decrease in risk) or 1.44, (a 44% increase). It could even be 1.0 – no effect at all. When the CI straddles 1.0, as it does in this case, the RR is not statistically significant. Note that in nearly all SHS studies the RR is not statistically significant.
Studies of behavior are difficult because people's habits and lifestyles vary so greatly. These variations are called confounders, and must be considered when analyzing the numbers. In studies of SHS, confounders include age, gender, allergies, nationality, race, medications, compliance with medications, education, gas heating and cooking, gender, socioeconomic status, exposure to other chemicals, occupation, use of alcohol, use of marijuana, consumption of saturated fat and other dietary considerations, family history of cancer and domestic radon exposure, to name a few.
Because it is easy to overlook an important confounder, the rule of thumb is that an RR of less than 2.0 is suspect, even if it is statistically significant, and an RR of 3.0 or more is preferred. Marcia Angell, the former editor of the prestigious New England Journal of Medicine says, “As a general rule of thumb we are looking for a relative risk of 3 or more before accepting a paper for publication." Robert Temple of the Food and Drug Administration said, “My basic rule is if the relative risk isn’t at least 3 or 4, forget it.” Even further, The National Cancer Institute explains, “Relative risks of less than 2 are considered small and are usually difficult to interpret. Such increases may be due to chance, statistical bias, or the effect of confounding factors that are sometimes not evident.”
For more information on how to interpret these numbers, visit Epidemology 101 and Epidemology 102 at The Facts.
Smokes and Mirrors ____________________
By Aaron North. Looking at an issue, particularly one as seemingly cut and dry as tobacco, from multiple angles is a must to ensure our outlooks on public policy and the popular voice are not forfeited to the smoke being blown around us.
Almost 255,000 of the 440,000 smoking-related deaths reported by the CDC — nearly 60 percent of the total — occurred at age 70 or above.
More than 192,000 deaths — nearly 45 percent of the total — occurred at age 75 or higher.
And roughly 72,000 deaths — almost 17 percent of the total — occurred at age 85 or above.TopAbstracts in Smoking Related Disorders ____________________
TopAbstracts™ in Smoking Related Disorders are the abstracts most highly rated/most read by nearly 300,000 physicians who received a Doctor's Guide™ newsletter or visited a website Powered by Doctor's Guide™ in the past 14 days. Over 2000 peer-reviewed journals are covered by TopAbstracts.Epidemiology for the Uninitiated
David W. Kuneman
More Smokers StudiesInteractive DataBase Search Page. American Journal of Health Promotion. Over 350 studies. ____________________
Smoking Studies list from Forces Nederland ____________________
Publication Bias ____________________
Mad Max's Studies List ____________________
Cato Institute: Tobacco Studies ____________________
WHO ____________________
The Hype and the Deceit ____________________
Second Hand Smoke Frauds ____________________
____________________
Contents:
1. What is epidemiology?
2. Quantifying disease in populations
3. Comparing disease rates
4. Measurement error and bias
5. Planning and conducting a survey
6. Ecological studies
7. Longitudinal studies
8. Case-control and cross sectional studies
9. Experimental studies
10. Screening
11. Outbreaks of disease
12. Reading epidemiological reports
13. Further reading